Goldman Sachs Predicts $740 Billion Profit Peak for Korean Semiconductor Stocks: Is the AI Supercycle Just Starting?

Goldman Sachs raises 2028 profit targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to 1,000 trillion KRW. Explore why Korean semiconductor stocks are set to soar.

Goldman Sachs Korea report

Introduction: A Bullish Bombshell for Seoul's Tech Giants

For months, the global investment community has been whispering about a potential 'peak out' in the semiconductor cycle. Critics argued that the AI-driven frenzy might be cooling off. However, Goldman Sachs just dropped a bombshell report that turns that narrative on its head. The investment bank has drastically raised its long-term earnings forecasts for the titans of the Korean semiconductor stocks market: Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) and SK Hynix (KRX: 000660).

The Staggering Numbers: A $740 Billion Profit Era

Goldman Sachs isn't just optimistic; they are predicting a record-breaking 'supercycle' that could last until 2028. Their latest projections suggest that the combined operating profit of these two giants will surpass 1,000 trillion KRW (approximately $740 billion USD) by 2028.

  • Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930): Projected 2028 operating profit of 610 trillion KRW (approx. $452 billion USD).
  • SK Hynix (KRX: 000660): Projected 2028 operating profit of 454 trillion KRW (approx. $336 billion USD).

To put this in perspective for US investors, these figures represent a massive leap from current valuations. Goldman Sachs even set eye-popping price targets: 450,000 KRW (approx. $333 USD) for Samsung and 3,500,000 KRW (approx. $2,592 USD) for SK Hynix. This suggests the market is significantly undervaluing the long-term cash-flow potential of the AI infrastructure boom.

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Why the 'Higher for Longer' Theme Matters

The core of the Goldman Sachs thesis is the "Higher for Longer" phenomenon. Unlike previous memory cycles that were short-lived and volatile, the current demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—essential for AI chips like those made by Nvidia—is creating a more sustained growth trajectory.

The Rise of HBM and NAND Recovery

While HBM has been the star of the show, Goldman Sachs is now pointing toward a massive recovery in conventional DRAM and NAND flash memory. SK Hynix, often compared to Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) in the US, is leading the HBM charge, while Samsung (frequently called the 'Apple and Intel of Korea' combined) is expected to see a 31.6% upward revision in its NAND profits by 2028. This suggests that the entire memory ecosystem is undergoing a structural re-rating.

Strategic Insight for Foreign Investors

Why should a retail investor in New York or London care? Because Korean tech stocks often trade at a significant discount compared to their US peers due to the 'Korea Discount.' However, if Goldman Sachs is correct, the earnings power of these companies will soon be too large for the market to ignore.

Key Takeaways for Your Portfolio:

  • Beyond the Peak: If you were worried about missing the boat, this report suggests we are only in the early-to-mid stages of the AI supercycle.
  • Diversification: Samsung offers a diversified bet on foundry, mobile, and memory, while SK Hynix is a pure-play bet on the high-end AI memory supply chain.
  • Valuation Re-rating: Goldman believes that investors will soon pay a higher 'multiple' for these earnings, meaning the stock prices could rise faster than the earnings themselves.

Conclusion: A New Paradigm for K-Tech

The Goldman Sachs report is a wake-up call. By debunking the 'peak out' theory, they've set the stage for a multi-year rally. For foreign investors, Korean semiconductor stocks represent a high-alpha opportunity to play the global AI theme at a potentially lower entry price than US-based chipmakers. As the world becomes increasingly data-hungry, Samsung and SK Hynix are the ones providing the 'brain' for the digital revolution.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in international stocks involves risks, including currency fluctuations and market volatility. Always consult with a professional advisor before making investment decisions.

Location: 미국 뉴욕

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